California could be sitting pretty according to the Motley Fool’s The Most Important Numbers of the Next Half Century which says “Age distribution is hardly the end-all driver of future growth, but it plays an important role.” The article attributes much of Japan’s economic stagnation to demographic trends,
“Japan’s aging population has created a demographic brick wall that has kept economic growth low for the last two decades, and will likely worsen for more to come.”
It goes on to compare the population shares of the working age and the over-65 cohorts of the leading industrial economies in 2012 and 2050 (see tables from the article below to which I added California data).
The U.S. economy looks relatively good in 2050 with “one of the lowest percentages of elderly citizens, and one of the highest rates of working-age bodies among large economies.” If this is the case, then based on the most recent projections of the Department of Finance, California will be in slightly better shape in this regard than the nation as a whole as well as the other leading economies mentioned. Of course, this doesn’t mean that there aren’t other states whose populations will outgrow California over the next several decades.